Posted on 26th July 2014 by barry norman in Stockpair Daily Insight

stockpair-dailytips (2)

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events today:

Currency              Event

USD                      Pending Home Sales (MoM)


US Recovery Is Back On Track

Barry Norman


The news is the latest sign that the US recovery in the world’s top economy is well on track. The Commerce Department released figures showing sales of new single-family houses fell 8.1 per cent in June, tempering the positive vibe. While the S&P 500 ended marginally higher, the Dow and NASDAQ dipped slightly.

new home sales

gold dollar signOn currency markets, the euro bought Y137.02. The euro also fetched $1.3460 on Friday against $1.3464 in US trade. The euro had taken a hit this week owing to fears about the knock-on effect of planned fresh sanctions against Moscow for its support of anti-government rebels in Ukraine who the US blame for shooting down a Malaysian airliner last week. But it rebounded on Thursday after private research firm Markit said its index of manufacturing activity in the region jumped in July. The purchasing managers index (PMI) hit 54 this month, preliminary figures show, compared with 52.8 in June. A figure above 50 points to growth in the sector while anything below suggests contraction. However, Markit warned that the crisis in Ukraine was still clouding the outlook.

Oil prices were lower. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for September delivery dipped seven US cents to $102.00 a barrel in afternoon trade, while Brent crude gained three US cents to $107.08.

The big events this week included a soaring HSBC PMI manufacturing release from China, an interest rate increase in New Zealand, and a significant drop in unemployment claims in the US.

Economic events were overshadowed by geopolitical pressures as violence and fighting in the Ukraine, Libya, Iraq and Palestine remained in the headlines. But to many surprised gold dropped on Thursday to trade in the 1290 range.

This coming week will see two major events that should keep traders on point. The FOMC two meeting and Fridays, nonfarm payroll release.

Posted on 26th July 2014 by barry norman in Stockpair weekly Insights

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events this week:

Date/Currency    Event

Jul. 28 

USD                      Pending Home Sales (MoM)

Jul. 29 

USD                      CB Consumer Confidence

Jul. 30 

USD                      ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

USD                      GDP (QoQ)

Jul. 31 

CAD                     GDP (MoM)

CNY                     Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI

Aug. 01

EUR                      German Manufacturing PMI

EUR                      Manufacturing PMI

USD                      Nonfarm Payrolls



Global Exchanges

world marketsIt was an amazing week for traders with the markets hitting record highs mid-week and a steady flow of news and economic data. Traders are now preparing for the FOMC meeting this week and the nonfarm payroll report on Friday. Stocks fell in light volume Friday, led by Amazon’s 10% plunge following a weaker-than-expected earnings report.

The Dow Jones industrial average lost 0.7%, sinking below 17,000, as Visa (NYSE:V) fell nearly 4% after a mixed earnings report. The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 dropped 0.5% each. Volume fell 12% on the NASDAQ and 14% on the NYSE, according to preliminary data. plunged in heavy volume after the online retailer reported a net loss of 27 cents a share, well below analysts’ expectations. Sales rose 23%. The stock, which had been climbing the right side of a consolidation, sliced through its 50-day moving average.

China-based stocks were among the best performers as the Shanghai composite rose for the fourth straight session. Baidu jumped 11% to a new high on strong Q2 results.

The European Union is mulling measures to curb Russia access to the capital markets, after the downing of the Malaysia Airlines passenger jet over eastern Ukraine last week. Adding to tensions, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk announced his resignation on Thursday, after two parties pulled out of the governing coalition.

The International Monetary Fund trimmed its global growth forecasts again on Thursday, citing geopolitical risks in Iraq as well as Ukraine, plus lowered expectations for key emerging markets. It now sees the global growth at 3.4 percent this year, rather than 3.7 percent.

A crush of big-cap earnings and arguably the most important economic reports until September combine to make the week ahead the busiest of the summer for markets.

Currency Markets

The U.S. dollar hit an eight-month high against the euro on Friday after weak data on German business sentiment heightened concerns that geopolitical tensions were weighing on the euro zone economy. The euro was last down 0.27 percent against the dollar at $1.3429 after falling to an eight-month low of $1.34210. The dollar was up 0.03 percent against the Japanese yen at 101.83 yen.

Against the Swiss franc, the dollar was last up 0.23 percent, to trade at 0.90480 franc after earlier hitting a five-month high of 0.90520 franc. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the dollar against a basket of six major currencies, was last up 0.22 percent at 81.047.

currency world

Commodity Markets

Gold(60 minutes)20140725102716Gold futures recovered from a three-day losing streak to close above $1,300 at the end of the week as escalating havoc in Eastern Europe and the Middle East boosted demand for haven assets.  Gold rose 1% for the session to settle at $1,303.30 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Posted on 24th July 2014 by barry norman in Stockpair Daily Insight

stockpair-dailytips (2)

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events today:

Currency              Event

EUR                      German Ifo Business Climate Index

GBP                       GDP

USD                      Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)


Global Market Round Up – Lots of Mixed Data

Barry Norman

US markets were trading in a positive mode after strong jobless data from the US. Traders paid very little attention to a disappointing new home sales report. European shares reversed their opening losses following strong PMI data, but traded sideways afterwards. US new home sales surprised on the downside of expectations in June, falling by 8.1% M/M to a total of 406K. Also the previous month’s figure was sharply downwardly revised. The consensus was looking for an outcome of 475K.

us jobless claims

In the eurozone Spain’s unemployment rate fell to 24.5% in the second quarter, down from 25.9% during the first three months of the year, the national statistics bureau said today. The unemployment rate is now again at its lowest rate since the second quarter of 2012.

eurozone pmiThe eurozone composite PMI showed an unexpected rebound in July, rising from 52.8 to 54.0, while stabilization was expected. The composite PMI is now again at its highest level in nearly three years, a level that was also reached in April this year. The improvement was mainly based in the services sector as the services PMI jumped from 52.8 to 54.4, a 38‐month high. The manufacturing PMI on the contrary, rose only marginally, from 51.8 to 51.9, while a limited drop was forecast. Growth in new orders slowed slightly, due to weakness in the manufacturing sector, which was being hit by the escalation of the crisis in Ukraine. German PMI’s, on the contrary, surprised on the upside of expectations, with the composite recovering from 54.0 to 55.9. Also in Germany, the improvement was led by the services PMI, while a more limited pick‐up was registered in the manufacturing PMI. The euro is trading at 1.3477 while the pound eased to trade under the 1..70 range after the publication of the BoE minutes yesterday, sterling investors faced a next important reference for trading today with the UK retail sales. Of late, the BoE left markets in doubt on the timing of a first rate hike. So, the markets have to keep a close look at the data. Recently, the UK eco data were no longer unequivocally better than expected as was the case earlier this year and this trend was confirmed with today’s retail sales. Sales grew a very meager 0.1%

euro stockpairs

Posted on 24th July 2014 by barry norman in Stockpair Daily Insight

stockpair-dailytips (2)

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events today:

Currency              Event

CNY                      Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI

EUR                      German Manufacturing PMI

GBP                       Retail Sales (MoM)

USD                      New Home Sales

Gold Traders Bored

Barry Norman

Gold is holding pretty steady just under the 1310 price range with little reaction to the world geopolitical situation as violence around the globe push stress levels to the boiling point. Last year it was consumer demand that offset some of the heavy selling by institutions through exchange traded funds (ETFs) and stopped the gold price falling by more than 28%, but this year has been the reverse. ETFs have performed much better than forecast, while physical demand has disappointed.

Gold(60 minutes)20140723125316

gold stockpairLatest figures from the China Gold Association showed gold demand fell 19% in the first six months of this year as lower sales of bars and coins offset a rise in jewelry purchases.

Consumption fell to 569.5 tonnes, with the weakness in the yuan adding to higher spot prices, while the heavy buying last had seen stocks rise to unsustainable levels. Brokers said gold bars are the most speculative and price sensitive area of the market. China bought a record 1,176 tons of gold last year, but is expected to be just below that figure in 2014. Gold consumption retreated almost 20 percent in the first half as bullion used for producing bars and coins plunged from a year earlier, the China Gold Association said today.

Total consumption dropped 19.4 percent to 569.5 tons in the first half, according to the Beijing-based industry association. Consumption for making bullion bars plunged 62 percent to 105.6 tons, while demand for coins and other items slumped 44 percent to 11 tons. Demand for jewelry and industrial use remained robust during the period, each increasing about 11 percent to 426.2 tons and 26.8 tons, respectively. On the production side, total output rose 9.4 percent year on year to 211.1 tons.

China overtook India as the world’s biggest gold market last year by posting a record-high demand of 1,132 tons for the whole year. Hopes of a revival in Indian demand have also been dashed by the new government, with  the Finance Minister confirming that  gold import restrictions would remain in place for some time.

Gold and silver traders are sitting on the sidelines as consumption declines and inflation remains tame. Central Banks have held fire and are slowly beginning to turn away from the easy money philosophy. The US dollar has climbed lately pressuring the metals family primarily precious metal.s


Posted on 23rd July 2014 by barry norman in Stockpair Daily Insight

stockpair-dailytips (2)

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events today:

Currency              Event

AUD                      CPI (QoQ)

CAD                      Retail Sales

GBP                       MPC Meeting Minutes

US Dollar Soars

Barry Norman

conservation-house-finalOne of the most important segments of the US economic recovery which has been lagging behind has been US Home Sales. After the labor market, home sales were the biggest thorn in the side of the Fed’s and the overall recovery. Janet Yellen mentioned it in her testimony before US lawmakers and the Beige Book noted it earlier this month. Yesterday existing home sales soared above market expectations and also had a previous month’s upward revision, which was significant. Existing home sales rose for the third consecutive month in June, up 2.6 per cent to an annual rate of 5.04 million — an eight-month high.

Sales of existing US homes in June hit the highest level in eight months as home price gains slowed to “more welcoming levels,” the National Association of Realtors said on Tuesday. Year-over-year, June sales were 2.3 percent lower, reflecting the housing market’s struggle to recover from a long soft patch due to higher mortgage interest rates, lack of inventory that pushed prices higher, and high unemployment. In May, the rate was down 5.0 percent from a year ago. The median price for all housing types climbed to $223,300, up 4.3 percent from a year ago. June marked the 28th month in a row of year-over-year price gains.

The US dollar responded accordingly climbing to trade at 80.86 touching a multi month high. Earlier in the day the US dollar eased down after the release of inflation data which printed lower than expected. Against the euro the dollar is trading at 1.3464 and the pound at 1.7072

existing home sales

The-Federal-Reserve-Bought-Approximately-80-Percent-Of-U.S.-Treasury-Securities-Issued-In-2009-300x300The US Consumer Price Index rose 0.3 per cent in June to be up 2.1 per cent over the year. Gasoline accounted for two-thirds of the gain lifting by 3.3 per cent in June. Stripping out food & energy prices, core CPI rose by a tame 0.1 per cent in June to be up 1.9 per cent on year ago. The data bolster Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s view that a recent pickup in inflation was temporary and that the world’s largest economy would rebound from a first-quarter slump. That means the central bank can keep interest rates low well into 2015 even as it continues to trim bond purchases.

While the CPI has been “a bit on the high side,” the data can be noisy, Yellen said in a news conference last month following the Fed’s meeting. Broadly speaking, inflation “is evolving in line with the committee’s expectations,” she said.

Core inflation CPI

Posted on 22nd July 2014 by barry norman in Stockpair Daily Insight

stockpair-dailytips (2)

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events today:

Currency              Event

USD       Core CPI (MoM)

USD       Existing Home Sales

Traders Sidelined

Barry Norman

The shiny yellow metal ended Monday a bit higher, on its safe haven appeal with investors staying away from riskier assets as mounting worries over developments in Ukraine, Israel and the Middle East. It was a strange trading day, currencies barely moved with all majors trading in tight ranges with low volume. There was very little in the way of data but ample news flow and headlines kept traders occupied. Demand for traditional safe-haven yen and Swiss francs persisted but it was not strong enough to push their values out of their recent trading ranges against the dollar, as traders have been assessing whether the fighting in these regions would affect the global economy, analysts said.

Investor focus remained on the developments in eastern Ukraine and Gaza, with little or no major U.S. economic data, although several key reports are due later this week. Gold also found some support on renewed concerns over further sanctions against Russia after a passenger plane was shot down near the Ukraine-Russia border last Thursday. Gold climbed a bit to trade at 1313.00

gold stockpair

From the Middle East, news reports indicate the Israeli military to have taken up positions near the Gaza border and killed 10 militants. It is believed that Israel also had some casualties in the fight. Crude oil saw little action as there continues to be no supply disruption due to violence in Iraq and Libya. Oil just flows. However the fact that there have been no further disruptions to the supply of oil despite the increased violence in the Middle East and North Africa, bullish investors appear hesitant to come back into the market. Indeed, sentiment is still quite bearish.

The Dow Jones fell 31.85 points or 0.19 percent, to 17,068.33. The S&P 500 lost 3.46 to 1,974.76. The NASDAQ fell 1.65 points to 4,430.49.

Tuesday should prove to be an interesting day as the economic calendar brightens up along with the political front now the head of the UN has arrived on Doha to negotiate a ceasefire and US Secretary of State John Kerry has landed in Cairo for the same purpose. The US is backing the Egyptian ceasefire plan while saying that Israel has a right to defend itself, while the plan coming from Doha says that Israel is using its force to inflict harm and its will on the civilian population while Hamas is making unreasonable demands and continues to send missiles in the heart of Israel. It should be a very interesting day indeed.

eurusd stockpair

Posted on 19th July 2014 by barry norman in Stockpair Daily Insight

stockpair-dailytips (2)

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events today:

Currency              Event

USD       Core CPI (MoM)

USD       Existing Home Sales


Are Traders Immune To Global Tensions

Barry Norman

gaza-israel-warThe disastrous Malaysia Airlines crash in Ukraine highlights some worrisome facts about American-Russian relations. Mitt Romney was right: Russia is our biggest threat. We know that the Malaysian plane was brought down by a ground-to-air missile fired from Russian-made SA-11 weapons run by pro-Russian Ukrainian rebel terrorists. We also know that Russia is fighting a proxy war with the U.S. in Ukraine, and that Russian Special Forces are leading the terrorist movement in Ukraine. We can add to this the diplomatic war fought by Russia in the Middle East, with its main ally Iran, and the fact that Russia is engaging in state-sponsored terrorism. Whether President Obama understands all this, we don’t know. His policies have been alternatively passive (Libya, Egypt), incoherent (Russian reset) and feckless (Syria). But the fact that the current U.S. economic recovery is the slowest in post-World War II history — spanning 70 years — is surely a key factor in Vladimir Putin’s adventurism.

The question to investors is what effect the growing global geopolitical stress will have on assets. Gold reacted very strangely on Friday, turning lower as tensions climbed. Gold is considered the safe haven to protect investors during geopolitical uncertainties. Perhaps traders are becoming bored or immune to the troubles in the Middle East and Eurasia or perhaps globally.

Scared of a little global tension in the market?

Tell your shrink, not other investors, because they won’t listen. Despite drama in Gaza and Ukraine, the U.S. stocks soared Friday and ended the week with healthy gains. Wall Street rebounded significantly after a sharp sell-off Thursday. The Dow rose 123 points and ended the week up by 0.9%. The S&P 500 moved 1% higher Friday and closed out the week with a nice gain of half a percentage point. The NASDAQ bounced around 1.6% Friday and also ended the week up. It’s too early to say whether these latest risks will stop the Bull Run, but so far the stock market has kept on going up despite numerous obstacles — geopolitical and otherwise.

Gold dipped on Friday on profit-taking after a sharp overnight down 0.1% to $1,315.40 an ounce.

Gold(60 minutes)20140718123047

Posted on 19th July 2014 by barry norman in Stockpair weekly Insights

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events this week:

Date/Currency   Event

Jul. 22  

USD       CPI (MoM)

USD       Existing Home Sales

Jul. 23  

AUD       CPI (QoQ)

CAD      Retail Sales

NZD      Interest Rate Decision

Jul. 24  

CNY       Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI

EUR       German Manufacturing PMI

GBP        Retail Sales (MoM)

USD       New Home Sales

Jul. 25  

EUR       German Ifo Business Climate Index

GBP        GDP

USD       Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)


Global Exchanges

dow over 17000Markets touched a record high midweek as traders moved to higher risk assets but backed off after a Malaysian airline was shot down by Russia separatists over the Ukraine. The stock market closed higher Friday, patching up the prior day’s sell-off. The NASDAQ jumped 1.6% as biotech’s, semiconductors and Internet stocks bounced back. The S&P 500 rebounded 1% and the Dow Jones industrial average recovered 0.7%.Indexes closed near session highs, erasing practically all of Thursday’s deep losses. Volume in the stock market today was higher on the NYSE but lower on the NASDAQ, according to early figures. Friction between Israel and Arabs has increased as America’s Mideast influence wanes. And as Moscow seeks a return to Soviet-era territorial dominance, China is spooking Japan into rebuilding its military. The left always sees America as a global aggressor, but the Obama global power vacuum proves that the absence of America is what makes for a more dangerous world.
Global markets finished mixed after trading lower most of the day on fear of escalating tensions in Ukraine. The U.S. believes Flight MH17 was brought down by a surface-to-air missile over a region that has seen heavy fighting between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian government forces. Analysts say the tragedy could damage business confidence, particularly in Europe, but may also bring the crisis in Ukraine to a head by increasing the pressure on Moscow to resolve the conflict.

Currency Markets

us dollar fridayThe dollar steadied against the euro Friday in cautious trade a day after a Malaysian passenger plane was shot down over Ukraine and Israel launched a Gaza ground assault, AFP reported.

Currencies stabilized and Wall Street stocks rebounded from Thursday’s beating amid the heightened geopolitical tensions. The United States has said evidence suggests that pro-Moscow separatists, possibly with Russian technical assistance, downed the Malaysia Airlines plane with a surface-to-air missile, killing all 298 people on board. Ukraine’s government and Western leaders have accused Russia of supporting the separatist rebellion in the country’s east, but Moscow has denied the allegations.

The yen fell less than 0.1 percent to 101.34 per dollar on the week, and rose 0.6 percent to 137.08 per euro for a second weekly gain. The euro slid 0.6 percent to $1.3524, the biggest drop since June 13.


Commodity Markets

Gold(60 minutes)20140718123047The shooting down of a Malaysian airliner over Ukraine on Thursday and the ground invasion of Gaza by Israel gave the price a short upward injection, but the gains were reversed on Friday. Geopolitical uncertainty of has been a feature for gold this year, helping the price to rise by more than 9%, though brokers were skeptical over how much long term benefit the uncertainty in Ukraine, Israel and also Iraq might generate for the metal. Goldman Sachs has been one of the most bearish commentators on the prospects for gold in 2014 and Jeffrey Currie, its head of global commodities research, this week repeated his forecast that the spot price will fall to $1,050 by the end of the year. Gold slipped 0.3 percent to 1,312.80

Market analysts attributed the rise in crude oil futures to a firming trend in Asia after a Malaysia Airlines plane was reportedly shot down in war-ravaged Ukraine and Israel launched a ground offensive into Gaza. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate was up 53 cents to $103.72, while Brent crude gained 65 cents to $108.54.

Posted on 18th July 2014 by barry norman in Stockpair Daily Insight

stockpair-dailytips (2)

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events today:

Currency              Event

CAD                      Core CPI (MoM)


Geopolitical Tensions Boil Over Sending Gold Climbing

Barry Norman


hamas-rocket-threat-against-israel-gaza-strip-terrorist-militantsAll week long global tensions seemed to simmer just at the edge as traders grew tired of the stress and moved to higher risk assets pushing Wall Street to set new records. Gold tumbled to trade under the 1300 price level and crude oil broke below $100. Suddenly on Thursday the gas was turned up and political problems and violence boiled over. Late on Wednesday it seems that President Obama’s new sanction on Russia started to turn up the temperature. The two politicians Obama and Putin spent Thursday in a war of public opinion. On Thursday morning a humanitarian cease fire was agreed to for just 5 hours between Israel and Palestine. Israel kept their word while Hamas continued to send missiles across the border. By this morning Israel had launched a new ground offensive in Gaza to stop the continued missile barrage coming across the borders. Israel has been conducting air strikes in Gaza over the past few days in response to rocket attacks, but the decision to send in ground troops marks a significant escalation of hostilities. Investors sought safety in hard assets, such as precious metals. Gold prices rose 1.5% to $1,319, while silver gained 2% to $21.19.

It is still not clear what happened to a Malaysian airline with over 200 passengers that crashed over the Ukraine but initial reports ismalaysia+airline+jet+missing+indiana+ocean+plane+search+03132014+xx+1 that it was shot down by pro-Russian terrorist. European shares slumped almost immediately, extending losses after news that a Malaysian passenger plane had crashed in Ukraine near the Russian border. Airline stocks fell, with Air France KLM down 1.5 per cent, Lufthansa lost 2.4 per cent, International Consolidated Airlines Group — the owner of British Airways and Iberia fell 3.4 per cent. The FTSEurofirst 300 index lost 1 per cent with the German DAX down by 1.1 per cent while the UK FTSE fell by 0.7 per cent. Malaysian Airlines confirmed on Twitter that it had lost contact with flight MH17, and the plane’s last known position was over Ukrainian airspace. The plane was carrying 295 passengers. Ukraine’s president acknowledged that the crash occurred, while other officials in Kiev told CNN that Russian separatists were likely to blame.

Russian President Vladimir Putin accused the United States of pushing the Ukrainian authorities toward a continued conflict, whereas Russia wants to see an immediate end to hostilities and a negotiated solution involving all sides.

In addition to gold, investors also rotated money into U.S. Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year note fell to 2.48%, down from about 2.5% earlier in the day.


Posted on 17th July 2014 by barry norman in Stockpair Daily Insight

stockpair-dailytips (2)

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events today:

Currency              Event

EUR       CPI (YoY)

USD       Building Permits

USD       Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

Earning Push The Dow To New Record

Barry Norman

war forexwordsLately the Arabic Muslim conflict has dominated the global headlines while pushing geopolitical concerns higher and high.  The ongoing Syrian conflict continues to be a humanitarian nightmare but unresolved. This was recently followed by religious uprisings in Iraq which were pushed off the headlines as the conflict in Gaza took over, but remains unresolved and the world pays little attentions to the violence in Libya now that oil is flowing once again. But just days ago there was a major attack at the Tripoli airport. The Ukraine technically is not part of the Arab world and does not involve religious groups it is Russian conflict but it still remains unresolved on the edge of a pot ready to boil over.

What is amazing is the gold and oil speculators have grown so tired of these events, that the safe haven appeal of gold or the possible supply disruptions of oil are no longer looming factors on the prices of commodities. The Japanese yen has lost its luster over the past days along with many other traditional back up assets. Gold tumbled below the 1300 price level earlier this week and closed on Wednesday night below at 1299.80. Crude oil fell below the $100 price level on Tuesday but eased back up the following day but much lower than the 107 price it was trading at just a week ago. Brent oil is the surprise tumbling as low as 105.00 lower than before all of the conflicts in the Middle East.

oil stockpair

Traders have moved quickly to risk on mode pushing Wall Street once again to record highs. New York exchanges were higher on Wednesday. Shares in Intel rose by 9.3 per cent after a solid earnings result. And shares in Time Warner rose by 17.1 per cent after Twenty-First Century Fox confirmed that it made an $80 billion offer for the rival. The Dow Jones index rose by 77 points or 0.5 per cent to record highs with the S&P 500 index up by 0.4 per cent while the NASDAQ rose by 10 points or 0.2 per cent. he Dow cruised to fresh all-time highs on Wednesday as worries about a possible bubble in biotech and social media stocks quickly faded. Instead investors focused on a lot of good news, including stronger growth in China, a string of upbeat earnings reports and lots of companies merging and buying. After tumbling below the 17,000 mark last week, the Dow Jones industrial average has emphatically clawed its way back. The index set a new all-time intraday record of 17,139 and also notched a new closing record: 17,138.

dow jones wed