Posted on 19th April 2014 by barry in Stockpair Daily Insight

stockpair-dailytips (2)

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events today:

Currency         Event

JPY                   Exports (YoY)

JPY                   Imports (YoY)

JPY                   Trade Balance

USD                 Chicago Fed National Activity

USD                 CB Leading Index (MoM)

Is the US Sinking Under the Glut of Crude Oil?

pipeline_041814thinkstockU.S. crude-oil supplies rose by 10 million barrels last week, the biggest one-week gain since 2001, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. But much of the increase happened on the West Coast, far from the gushing wells in North Dakota and Texas. Crude oil inventories in the Gulf Coast area hit a record high of 207.2 million barrels on April 11, months after the controversial Keystone XL oil pipeline’s southern leg opened, a government stat shop said Thursday.

The southern part of TransCanada Corp.’s pipeline is called the Marketlink Pipeline, and runs from Cushing, Okla., to the Texas Gulf Coast, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said. It started operation in January, but the most controversial piece, known as Keystone XL, has been delayed amid objections from green groups. If built, it will run from Nebraska to Albert’s oil sands. The EIA said Marketlink is the main factor behind the record inventories. It has a capacity of 700,000 barrels per day, and will likely average 525,000 barrels a day this year.

The agency also attributed the record to growth in oil production and refineries entering seasonal maintenance. The inventory total includes tank farms, refineries and pipelines.

An industry agency which tracks oil imports, says the massive jump in oil stockpiles comes down to a big coincidence. Four tankers delivered Colombian crude to West Coast refineries last week, leading to a 1.5-million-barrel boost in Colombian exports to the region, which stretches from Arizona to Alaska, according to the data. But the fact remains with the US producing more oil than ever; there is a lack of transportation to carry the oil to producers, users and ports.

BNSF Railway officials have told federal regulators they’re concerned that older, less-robust tank cars will end up on U.S. oil trains because of Canadian railroad pricing policies discouraging them. Canadian Pacific and Canadian National railroads recently imposed surcharges on shippers using older tank cars known as DOT-111s to discourage their use for crude oil shipments. Tank cars built since October 2011 have thicker steel to make them more puncture-resistant. BNSF announced in February that it will purchase up to 5,000 new tank cars and lease them back to oil shippers. That is an unusual step because railroads typically don’t own tank cars; shippers usually purchase or lease them on their own.

Oil prices didn’t move much in response to the eye-popping inventory data. After the EIA release on Wednesday, prices settled up a penny at $103.76 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

oil satday

The muted reaction comes down to the West Coast’s isolation from the rest of the market. The region isn’t connected by pipeline to Midwestern oil production or refineries, which play a lead role in setting the price of Nymex crude futures. Traders therefore focused on the six-million-barrel rise for inventories outside the West Coast – a large but not unusual gain, said Stephen Schork, editor of energy trade publication The Schork Report.

By Thursday, market participants had shifted their focus from the overall stockpile rise to falling supplies at a key storage hub in Oklahoma where the benchmark U.S. contract is priced. Futures rose to $104.30 a barrel, a six-week high.

Posted on 19th April 2014 by barry in Stockpair weekly Insights

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events this week:

Date                Currency                     Event

Apr. 22

USD                 Existing Home Sales

Apr. 23

AUD                 CPI (QoQ)

CNY                 Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI

EUR                 German Manufacturing PMI

CAD                 Core Retail Sales (MoM)

USD                 New Home Sales

NZD                 Interest Rate Decision

Apr. 24

EUR                 German Ifo Business Climate Index

USD                 Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)

Apr. 25

GBP                 Retail Sales (MoM)

Global Exchanges

colorful spring flowers and easter eggs decorationWall Street finished a holiday-shortened week mostly higher as investors digested a plethora of earnings reports that generally met or exceeded expectations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 14.48 (0.09 per cent) to 16,410.37 on Thursday. The broad-based SP 500 advanced 2.59 to 1,864.90, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index rose 9.29 to 4,095.52.Major earnings reports came on Thursday from a broad of range of companies across finance, consumer goods, industrials and other segments of the economy. Of the 84 members of the SP 500 to report so far, 53 have beaten expectations, 22 have missed and nine have met, according to a report by SP Capital IQ. ‘On balance, even though there are some household names that have disappointed, like JPMorgan and IBM, the earnings season has been better than expected,’ said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities. Europe’s main stock markets have closed higher ahead of the Easter weekend, shaking off early losses as investors kept a wary eye on diplomatic talks over the Ukraine crisis. London’s FTSE 100 ended up 0.62 per cent on Thursday compared to Wednesday’s closing level, at 6,625.25 points. Germany’s DAX 30 rose 0.99 per cent to finish the day at 9,409.71 points and the CAC-40 in Paris gained 0.59 per cent to close on 4,431.81 points. European stock markets had rallied on Wednesday as strong company earnings, well-received Chinese growth data and a positive start on Wall Street offset jitters over the Ukraine crisis, traders said. Tokyo stocks have risen 0.68 per cent in quiet trade as a weaker yen boosted exporter shares following a mixed session on Wall Street. The Nikkei 225 index added 98.74 points to finish at 14,516.27, while the Topix index of all first-section shares climbed 0.58 per cent, or 6.78 points, to 1,173.37. Most regional markets were closed on Friday for the long Easter weekend. Dow Jones weekly Currency Markets

The dollar was steady in quiet Asian trade yesterday, winning support from positive US jobs data and a deal between Russia and the West aimed at easing tensions in Ukraine. The greenback fetched 102.43 yen in Tokyo, up from 102.39 yen in New York on Thursday while the euro drifted lower against the dollar to $1.3812 from $1.3813. The European single currency rose to 141.46 yen from 141.45 yen in US trade. The dollar lost most of its morning gains against the Japanese currency and “we don’t feel any sign that aggressive yen selling is set to start”, said Osamu Takashima, chief forex strategist at Citibank Japan. New claims for US unemployment insurance benefits edged higher last week but still remained close to a seven-year low, the Labor Department said Thursday. Initial claims, an indicator of the pace of layoffs, have been slowly trending lower as the world’s number one economy recovers from recession. eurusd weekly Commodity Markets

Gold was heading for a 1.8 percent weekly fall, dented by hopes that diplomatic efforts can calm violence in Ukraine and by strengthening US0 economic data. Fears over slowing demand in top consumer China and sustained sales from gold-backed funds also contributed to its fall below $1,300 an ounce. In thin Easter holiday trade gold was unchanged at $1,294. US and UK markets were closed on Friday and the UK markets are closed on Monday. Benchmark U.S. crude rose 54 cents to close at $104.30 a barrel in New York, Washington Post reported. Brent crude, an international benchmark used to price oil used by many U.S. refineries, was down 7 cents to close at $109.53 a barrel for June delivery in London. gold silver weekly

Posted on 18th April 2014 by barry in Stockpair Daily Insight

stockpair-dailytips (2)

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events today:

Currency              Event

CNY                      China House Prices (YoY)

EUR                      Italian Industrial New Orders (MoM)

EUR                      Italian Industrial Sales (MoM)

EUR                      Italian Wage Inflation (MoM)


Spring Holiday Wishes from Our Family to Yours

 colorful spring flowers and easter eggs decoration Everyone at Stockpair wishes all of our traders the best during this Spring Holiday. Global markets are closed today for Good Friday and most will remain shuttered on Monday for Easter Monday. US markets will be open on Monday but volume is expected to remain low. On Thursday volume fell quickly throughout the day as traders departed for the long holiday weekend. Many assets declined as speculators moved to safety to park their investment during the holiday. Trading meandered around the breakeven mark for much of the day. Volume was light. The Dow fell more than 50 points yesterday morning, but by the afternoon it was up more than 30 points. In the end the Dow finished with a modest loss while the S&P 500, and NASDAQ both had modest gains. The NASDAQ climbed 0.2% and the S&P 500 0.1%, while the Dow Jones industrial average edged down 0.1%. Indexes shaved gains in the final hour of the session. Volume tends to drop on the day before a holiday, but that wasn’t the case Thursday. Preliminary figures showed trading rose on the NASDAQ and NYSE. Trading was positive in the stock market today as winning stocks led losers by 5-to-3 on the NYSE and by 2-to-1 on the NASDAQ. Dow Jones Friday Google was also down more than 3%. Ad volume surged 26% in the most recent quarter. While that would be impressive for just about anybody else, Wall Street is now conditioned to see anything less than spectacular as mediocre when it comes to Google. In Europe, rising tensions in eastern Ukraine were adding to the unsettled tone. European, U.S., Russian and Ukrainian officials met in Geneva to try to find ways to resolve the crisis. President Obama has warned of new sanctions against Russia if talks fail. European markets closed slightly higher. China GDP data published Wednesday showed the world’s second largest economy is slowing, but not as dramatically as some had feared. Asian markets ended mixed The dollar headed for weekly gains against the euro and the yen as improving economic data backed speculation the Federal Reserve will remove stimulus this year. The greenback rose for a fifth day yesterday against a basket of peers after data showed manufacturing in the Philadelphia region grew at the fastest pace in seven months. The yen slipped to 10-day lows against the dollar this morning after speculators unwound some safe-haven trades following upbeat U.S. economic data and on hopes for a diplomatic initiative seeking an end to violence in Ukraine. The dollar traded at 102.43 yen, and has ticked up in the past five sessions from a three-week low of 101.32 yen.

Posted on 16th April 2014 by barry in Stockpair Daily Insight

stockpair-dailytips (2)

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events today:

Currency              Event

CAD                      Core CPI (MoM)

What a Great Day for Currency Traders As US Data Continues to Improve

It was a great day for currency traders as US data continued to print on the positive side now that the winter thaw is behind. Traders are now expecting that the FOMC will increase their rate of tapering at their next meeting. Today’s release of housing data which fell short of expectations was still positive showing a climb in overall housing but the demand for single family homes printed much better than expected indicating that US consumers had returned to the housing market buying up new homes. The March annualized pace of 946,000 fell short of analysts’ forecast for 965,000 and was down 5.9 percent on a year-ago basis. Single-family starts jumped 6.0 percent, following a 2.9 percent rise the month before. Multifamily starts slipped 3.1 percent in March after no change the month before. us housing data Not only did housing support the economic recovery but industrial production exceeded forecasts. Industrial production in March topped expectations on utilities but the manufacturing component was still quite healthy. Industrial production advanced 0.7 percent, following a rebound of 1.2 percent February. Market expectations were for a 0.4 percent boost. By major components, manufacturing increased 0.5 percent, following a 1.4 percent jump in February. Analysts projected a 0.5 gain. Mining increased 1.5 percent in March after a 0.9 percent boost the month before. Utilities jumped 1.0 percent after dipping 0.3 percent in February. Within manufacturing, the output of durable goods rose 0.4 percent after jumping 1.8 percent in February. US industrial production Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said Wednesday a strong economy that meets the central bank’s employment and price-stability goals could be achieved by the end of 2016. Yellen, who spoke at the Economic Club of New York, said the low level of inflation has been caused in part by factors that are likely to be temporary, such as lower prices for consumer energy and imports. The dollar index which measures the greenback against six rivals was little-changed at 79.794 versus 79.795 late Tuesday. China’s gross domestic product growth slowed to 7.4% in the first quarter from 7.7% previously, marking the slowest growth in 18 months which weighed heavily on commodities and currencies. The Australian dollar rose to 0.9375 as the data still beat expectations.  China is Australia’s largest trading partner. The euro climbed a bit but saw little reaction to data on Wednesday to $1.3820. European-Union consumer prices in March rose 0.5% from a year earlier, marking the lowest annual rate since November 2009. The tepid inflation rate is the latest to cause concern about deflation in the euro zone, which could prompt further easing from the European Central Bank. After comments from ECB Draghi over the weekend seems to indicate that the bank is now once again willing to consider action. The best performer on Wednesday was the GBP which climbed to 1.6795. The U.K. unemployment rate was an average of 6.9% between December and February, falling from 7.1% in the prior three months. The unemployment rate is now below the Bank of England’s threshold of 7%, which is one of several indicators used by the bank to determine the path of interest rates. The Bank of England said in August it wouldn’t consider raising interest rates until the unemployment rate fell to 7%. It’s amazing how just a few years ago, violent protests broke out in London over the government’s austerity programs, which seem to now born fruit as the UK economy is recovering stronger than most of its neighbors. UK unemployment

Posted on 15th April 2014 by barry in Stockpair Daily Insight

stockpair-dailytips (2)

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events today:

Currency              Event

CNY                      Chinese GDP (YoY)

CNY                      Chinese Industrial Production (YoY)

GBP                       Claimant Count Change

EUR                      CPI (YoY)

USD                      Building Permits

CAD                      Interest Rate Decision


Gold Does the Unexpected

Gold tumbled nearly 2% on Tuesday, with analysts attributing the decline to profit-taking on the back of overall strength in the dollar after the prior session closed at a three-week high for the metal. Silver and copper, meanwhile, saw their prices take hits on concerns over China’s economic growth. Industrial and base metals traded on a weak note ahead of Wednesday’s Chinese GDP and Industrial Production numbers. Gold dropped $24.30, or 1.8%, to $1,303.20 giving back an $8.50 gain from Monday, when prices closed at a three-week high. The decline in gold was due to profit-taking before the Easter holiday.

chinese gdp

The tumble also continued ignoring a World Gold Council report that found Chinese gold demand will increase by about 25% during the next four years. China’s high level of gold imports point to the dilemma facing a government that is on the one hand keen to realign its economy towards a more stable, risk-free financial system, and on the other hand wary of damaging growth, a World Gold Council report suggests. Official shipments of bullion from Hong Kong to China were exceptionally high last year at 1,490 tonnes, up from 830 tonnes in 2012, the report said, citing data from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics department. Imports of this scale are in excess of what is required to fill the underlying “deficit” in China and provoke questions about what is going on in the Chinese market, the report added. The surplus in the Chinese market stems from either the possible official purchases or the extensive use of gold in financial operations. Investors said dollar strength on yesterday’s stronger-than-anticipated retail sales put pressure on gold prices. They also blamed news out of China that indicated the country’s demand for gold was fueled by Chinese business efforts to use gold as collateral and not consumer desires to own gold jewelry and items. Tuesday marked the one-year anniversary that gold tumbled more than 9%, but unlike that event, analysts don’t expect the current 1% pullback to last very long.

gold april 16


Looking at the overall commodities space, oil dropped yesterday over investor expectations that a forthcoming meeting in Geneva could possibly resolve the current crisis situation in Ukraine.

Brent crude fell by 37 cents to $108.70 a barrel, while US oil was down by 72 cents to settle at $103.33, reported Reuters.

The US and EU are imposing further sanctions against Moscow as pro-Russia rebels defied an ultimatum by the Ukraine Government to leave occupied buildings in eastern cities. On 17 April, the EU, US, Russia and Ukraine are set to hold a meeting in Geneva, in a diplomatic move to tackle the Ukrainian crisis. The outcome of this meeting will decide the extent of tightening sanctions. Oil prices also decreased over news of resumed operations at Libya’s Zawiya oil port, as protesters vacated the entrance to the facility and the adjoining refinery reopened.

The Libyan Government is yet to take control at the eastern Zueitina oil port and the Hariga terminal after signing an agreement with a federalist rebel group a week ago.

In addition, traders are awaiting China’s GDP growth and the US oil inventory weekly data, due for release on today.

oil april 16

Posted on 15th April 2014 by barry in Stockpair Daily Insight

stockpair-dailytips (2)

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events today:

Currency              Event

GBP                       CPI (YoY)

USD                     Core CPI (MoM)

The US Winter Thaws As Retail Sales Soar

US retail sales on Monday woke up traders. European shares opened lower this morning as increasing tensions in Ukraine weighed on sentiment. Losses were however mitigated during the session after strong US retail sales. Wall Street ended higher after strong retail sales data and better earnings from Citigroup. US stocks have closed higher as a surge in US retail sales helped improve the mood of investors after last week’s falls. The Dow Jones jumped 146.49 points to 16,173.24. The S&P 500 lifted 14.92 points to 1,830.61, while the NASDAQ climbed 22.96 points, or 0.57 per cent, to 4,022.69.

At one stage in the session stocks had moved over 1 per cent higher as the retail sector shrugged off a disappointing winter to post the largest sales rise in 18 months. The 1.1 per cent lift in March sales comfortably topped market expectations. The result helped overcome recent pessimism around markets, which had led to sharp falls at the end of last week. A better-than-expected first quarter profit result from large US bank Citigroup was also cheered by investors, with the news offsetting a disappointing result from fellow heavyweight JP Morgan on Friday.

Global Markets April 15

Two happenings during the weekend set the tone for EUR/USD trading. ECB’s Draghi ‘warned’ at the IMF spring meeting in Washington that a strengthening of the exchange rate of the euro required more monetary stimulus. Draghi and other ECB members elaborated also on the details of a potential QE program. At the same time, Ukraine returned in the spotlights as the government in Kiev gave separatists an ultimatum to lay down arms. Both factors were euro negative. EUR/USD opened half a big figure lower in Asia. USD/JPY held stable in the mid 101 area.

The strongest lift in US retail sales since September 2012 shook the market out of its rut last night, pushing stocks on both side of the Atlantic higher. US consumers hit the shops in March, and spending surged 1.1 per cent. It was a particularly positive result as the gain follows a 0.7 per cent lift the month prior. Core retail sales rose 1 per cent — well above the consensus expectation for a 0.4 per cent gain.

currency markets April 15

The overall market was sensitive to events in Ukraine as violence continues. Pro-Russian separatists ignored the ultimatum to leave occupied government buildings in eastern Ukraine as Russia promised to protect the people in the region from violence. EU Foreign Ministers said yesterday that they should be prepared to impose a third round of sanctions, including economic measures, against Russia as armed separatists ignored the deadline to free official buildings they have occupied.

Posted on 12th April 2014 by barry in Stockpair weekly Insights

stockpair-dailytips (2)

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events today:

Currency              Event

USD                      Retail Sales (MoM)

President Obama and President Putin In War Of Words – Putin Yet To Pull The Plug

140411095837-vladimir-putin-russia-620xaGlobal energy prices are at the mercy of Russia President Putin. Oil and gas prices have been steadily climbing as the West pushed Putin into a corner. Sooner or later Putin is going to pull the plug and put the screws to Europe. The market panic will flow quickly around the world. This week Putin signed a major deal to supply China with oil and gas diversifying their customer base. President Obama seems to taking the Ukraine situation on a personal level, instead of boots on the ground, he is using words in the press. The U.S. Treasury added six Crimean separatist leaders, a former Ukrainian official and the natural gas company Chernomorneftegaz to the list of those sanctioned because of Russia’s incursion into Crimea. The

U.S. action comes a day after the finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of Seven large industrial economies met in Washington and discussed the situation in Ukraine. Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew told his Russian counterpart Anton Siluanov yesterday that the U.S. stands ready to impose additional “significant sanctions.” The EU imported 30 percent of its gas supply from Russia last year, a proportion that’s even higher in some eastern and southern European countries. That reliance has come under scrutiny during the crisis over Ukraine this year, sparking a debate about how to diversify sources of supply. Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned Ukraine’s non-payment for gas shipments may threaten supply to Europe.

oils monday All sides agree that Ukraine owes $2.2 billion to Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned natural gas provider. But beyond that, the numbers get murky. According to Russian reports, Ukraine owes $11 billion for discounts that were canceled retroactively following Moscow’s decision to tear up the Kharkiv accord — a deal which gave Russia the right to operate a military base in Crimea in exchange for cheap gas. And the final bill could be much higher if Russia demands compensation for Ukraine failing to buy as much gas as it promised under a 2009 contact, according to IHS senior energy analyst Andrew Neff. Russia has disrupted supplies to Europe before — most recently in January 2009 — and the threat is real. But analysts see it as a last resort for Putin, given the impact on Russian business interests. Cutting gas exports now would further undermine Russia’s faltering economy, which is heavily reliant on energy exports. natural gas weeklyAlthough there is not much that US natural gas suppliers can do in the short term to offset the possible supply disruptions, the tensions have pushed natural gas to be trading well above its seasonal average. NG is now trading at the 4.60 level. Crude oil and Brent oil continue to climb on the geopolitical tensions. Crude oil this week climbed above the 103 price level while Brent oil seems to be less effected trading around 107. This week’s news report show that Texas is flooded with a glut of US crude oil as production is increasing faster than transportation methods to move the commodity

Posted on 12th April 2014 by barry in Stockpair weekly Insights

stockpair-dailytips (2)

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events this week:

Date                     Currency              Event

Apr. 14                 USD                      Retail Sales (MoM)

Apr. 15                 GBP                       CPI (YoY)

USD                      Core CPI (MoM)

Apr. 16                 CNY                      Chinese GDP (YoY)

CNY                      Chinese Industrial Production (YoY)

GBP                       Claimant Count Change

EUR                      CPI (YoY)

USD                      Building Permits

CAD                      Interest Rate Decision

Apr. 17                 CAD                      Core CPI (MoM)


Global Exchanges

Global exchanges suffered this week as earning seasons stressed traders.  The NASDAQ was the biggest loser. The tech-heavy index fell more than 1.3% to end below 4,000 for the first time since early February. It lost 3.1% for the week. The Dow Jones fell 143 points after JPMorgan reported weaker-than-expected earnings growth. The blue-chip average sank 2.3% for the week, falling after three weeks of gains. All three major U.S. market indexes are now down for the year. JPMorgan said earnings were hurt in the first quarter by weakness in bond trading, while consumer lending and deposits were a bright spot. Despite the lackluster report, CEO Jamie Dimon said he has “growing confidence in the economy.”

Citigroup Bank of America Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs will report results next week. Overall, earnings for the companies in the S&P 500 are expected to fall 1.2% in the first quarter. That would mark the first annual decline since the third quarter of 2012.

The rout in tech shares spilled over into Asian markets Friday. Shares of Tencent plunged 6.8% and Samsung fell 5%. The Nikkei index plunged 2.4%, taking its loss for the week to 7.3%. European markets were also caught up in the fallout from Wall Street’s slump.

World currency weekly

Currency Markets

The dollar posted weekly losses of more than 1% against the euro and yen as investors readjusted their views on the future path of interest rates after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting showed officials hadn’t changed their outlook on monetary policy. The dollar rose to yen101.69 from yen101.49 late Thursday, but posted a weekly loss of 1.5%. The euro was steady at $1.3886, for a weekly gain of 1.3%. Data released Friday showed U.S. producer prices rose by more than expected last month, with details in the report hinting at a possible buildup in inflationary pressure that is desired by the Federal Reserve. The British pound fell to $1.6736. The pound was weighed on by a 2.8% decline in construction output in February from January. The Australian dollar fell to 0.9395 remaining well above its expecting trading range on encouraging jobs data.

US dollar weekly

Commodity Markets

Gold rallied but still ended a tad lower on Friday, with the dollar trending higher on some upbeat macroeconomic data from the U.S. with global equity markets continuing to slide. Gold prices benefited after investor anxiety drove the precious metal to a near three-week high in the previous session. Nonetheless, gold prices gained 1.2 percent for the week.

The price of oil rose nearly 3 percent this week on expectations that U.S. drivers would hit the road and drive up demand for gasoline. Benchmark crude for May delivery rose 34 cents Friday to close at $103.74 in New York. It ended last week at $101.14.

Natural gas continues to rise as Putin puts the screws to the Ukraine and Europe.

natural gas weekly

Posted on 10th April 2014 by barry in Stockpair Daily Insight

stockpair-dailytips (2)

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events today:

Currency         Event

CNY                 Chinese CPI (YoY)

USD                 PPI (MoM)

Chinese Trade Data Disappoints – NASDAQ Tanks Along With Global Equities

Asian markets seem to be taking soft Chinese trade data as good news, with equities up by 1.5% overnight in Hong Kong and 1.4% on the mainland’s SE Composite index on Thursday. Friday morning traders will be looking at consumer inflation data.  Then again, they’re more likely reacting to the overnight policy easing that allows for increased cross-border equity trading between Hong Kong and Shanghai. The currency space has been fairly nonchalant about the weak Chinese trade figures as well, with the DXY essentially flat on modest strength in the JPY and EUR. Sterling is roughly flat to the USD after the BoE held its policy rate and didn’t add any color to its announcement by way of a longer statement. The U.S. Treasury curve remains bid in the wake of the release yesterday of minutes from the March 19 FOMC meeting which we think that markets bought into excessively (see above), with the weakness in China perhaps adding to the short-run Treasury bullishness. Chinese trade figures disappointed expectations again, but not by as wide a margin as the prior month. The value of exports fell by 6.6% y/y and the value of imports plunged 11.3%. Because imports fell faster than exports, the trade balance actually improved from a deficit of about US$23 billion in February to a surplus of about US$7.7 billion in March. The markets did not react originally as the total trade balance printed in the green, it was not until traders had a bit of time to evaluate the export and import numbers. The dip in exports pushed the Australia dollar off the 95 level, and is trading at 0.9412. The New Zealand dollar eased off of the 87 price to trade at 0.8682. Chinese Trade Balance April 11 The Dow Jones fell 267 points on Thursday as any doubts about whether or not the market is in the middle of a full-blown correction were put to rest. Investors who got lured into stocks during yesterday’s rally were quickly flushed. Only the closing bell could stop the losses but not before the S&P had been hit for a 2% loss and the NASDAQ dropped another 3%. More concerning to professional investors was pronounced weakness in the blue chip stocks that had been serving as safe harbors for more conservative investors. The Dow and S&P 500 were at record highs as recently as Friday morning’s opening bell. From that moment on every rally attempt has been met by aggressive selling from institutional investors and Main Street shareholders alike. Traders paid little attention to the strong jobless claims data released today. A better-than-expected U.S. weekly jobless claims report failed to lift the dollar, reflecting the broad bearish sentiment on the greenback. The Labor Department said showed new claims for jobless benefits fell to 300,000, near a seven-year low and below the consensus forecast of 320,000. The data was overshadowed by Wednesday’s release of the minutes of the Fed’s March policy meeting. Global Equities April 11

Posted on 9th April 2014 by barry in Stockpair Daily Insight

stockpair-dailytips (2)

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events today:

Currency         Event

AUD                 Employment Change

CNY                 Chinese Trade Balance

GBP                 Interest Rate Decision

Fed’s Back Pedal Rate Increase Scenario

fed-yellenIn yesterday’s Insights, we discussed Janet Yellen’s possible gaff at the FOMC press conference and what the Minutes released on Wednesday might show. This week Fed speakers have been trying to back pedal on the interest rate increase date given by Yellen after the March meeting. The markets were touched by volatility on March 19 when the Fed tweaked its economic forecasts to indicate that higher interest rates were more likely to come sooner than later. But the minutes from that March meeting, suggested that that wasn’t the signal that the Fed was trying to give. Several Federal Reserve policy makers said a rise in their median projection for the main interest rate exaggerated the likely speed of tightening, according to minutes of their March meeting. “Several participants noted that the increase in the median projection overstated the shift in the projections,” the minutes of the March 18-19 AboutTheFedHeadingFederal Open Market Committee meeting showed. Some expressed concern the rate forecasts “could be misconstrued as indicating a move by the committee to a less accommodative reaction function.” “Members agreed that there was sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor-market conditions,” the minutes show. The FOMC next meets April 29-30. The committee last month scrapped its pledge to keep the main interest rate low at least as long as unemployment exceeds 6.5%, saying it will look at a broader range of data when considering when to increase borrowing costs. Fed officials predicted that the benchmark interest rate would rise faster than previously forecast. eurusd April 10 The US dollar ended flat after the release of the minutes to trade at 79.60 after declining from 80.60 as hopes of an early rate increase eased late last week. The euro is trading at 1.3853, which will force the hand of the ECB as the strength of the euro will kill any hopes of a recovery in the eurozone. The overall best recent performer is the pound sterling with added 43 points today to trade at 1.6791 after two days of positive data from manufacturing and trade.  Keep a close eye on the BoE meeting later today. gold april 10