Posted on 20th December 2014 by barry norman in Stockpair Daily Insight

stockpair-dailytips (2)

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events today:

Cur. Event
  NZD Westpac Consumer Sent.
  USD Existing Home Sales (Nov)
  USD Existing Home Sales (MoM)

 

Crude Oil Traders Prepare For The Christmas Holidays

December 22, 2014

Barry Norman

24020755-oil-industry-christmas-design-vector-illustrationTraders locked in profits and took positions ahead of the end of the year as the Christmas season grows near.  Late on Friday late in the day the US dollar rallied surging to 89.83 and looking like it might break the 90 level early in the week. Crude oil rebounded adding close to $4 to trade at 57.87 after comments from Saudi Arabia leaving the door open to negotiations on reducing production if they could be assured on holding on to their market share.

At the start of the week, slumping oil prices and the state of the world economy were investors’ main worries. A plunge in the Russian currency, the ruble, added to a sense of unease.

The turnaround came Wednesday, when Janet Yellen, the Federal Reserve chairwoman, said she saw no reason to hike interest rates in early 2015 and that the central bank would be “patient” in deciding when to raise rates from near zero. Her comments eased concerns that the Fed would start raising rates when growth in other major economies has looked weak. Traders celebrated, driving the S&P 500 up 4.5 percent over two days.

The economy most visibly disrupted by the decline in oil and gas prices is, of course, Russia. President Vladimir Putin’s press conference the other day was hardly a reassuring display of statesmanship; the “bear” as he styles his country is apparently being shackled and cribb’d by Western powers solely intent on further humiliation for Russia. As the Russian people face rising inflation, a collapsing currency, a slump and a vicious squeeze on living standards, this may be the best line Mr Putin has, but it certainly does not deserve to convince anyone that his economic policies have been anything other than a dismal failure.

Far too dependent on natural resources, Russia has left it too late to diversify, modernise and reform her economic structures. Soon, Russia may not be able to afford to wage any more of her little wars.

For America, too, it is a mixed blessing, and the US has been something of a player in this switchback in energy prices. In the supposed battle between Saudi Arabia’s oil wells and American discoveries of shale gas, it is the Americans who are outstripping the Arab world in productive activity.

oil stockpair

Posted on 20th December 2014 by barry norman in Stockpair weekly Insights

Stockpair Weekly Market Wrap

 For The Week Ending December 19, 2014

 

Global Exchanges

Wall Street end the week with a third straight day Friday, but they lacked the power of Wednesday’s and Thursday’s advances, even though volume was higher because of quadruple witching. The NASDAQ rose 0.4%, the S&P 500 gained 0.5% and the Dow Jones industrial average was ahead 0.2%. A few earnings reports and a new issue dominated the session.

The release on Wednesday afternoon of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s last policy statement of the year, in which it pledged to be patient in raising rates, injected markets with a jolt of enthusiasm. Japan’s recommitment to its massive economic stimulus campaign pushed Asian stocks to their best day in 15 months, and oil’s rebound helped bolster the flailing Russian ruble. European shares closed mixed on Friday, with Italian banking stocks and the health care sector weighing on wider benchmarks.

London’s FTSE 100 led gains in Europe, unofficially ending around 1.4 percent higher. The French CAC closed 0.3 percent lower and Germany’s DAX finished down 0.5 percent. On the week, the FTSE is leading major European bourses, adding around 4 percent, followed by the CAC with 3.1 percent and the DAX with gains of 1.8 percent.

global exchanges stockpair

Currency Markets

The euro fell to a 28-month low against the dollar, driven by the prospect of bond buying by the European Central Bank. In currency markets, the euro hit a 28-month low against the dollar $1.2240 on diverging central bank policies. The yen was also weaker against the dollar, at 119.50, dented by Japan’s ongoing monetary stimulus measures. In Europe, worries emerged that the European Central Bank’s money-printing plans could come with a number of restrictive strings attached. The Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy steady at its final meeting of the year, as had been expected. But the central bank raised its economic assessment, citing signs of a pickup in exports. The US dollar came close to a multiyear record high at 89.83

global curencies stockpair

Commodity Markets

Brent oil prices rebounded, gaining 5 percent to hit $62 a barrel in a recovery from near a 5-1/2-year low, as investors squared books ahead of the year-end after a six-month slide. The rise in oil, which along with gas is among Russia’s chief source of export revenue, helped the ruble claw back another 5 percent of the roughly 58 percent it had lost between the end of June and Monday.

Gold ended the week just a bit under the $1200 price level.

Posted on 18th December 2014 by barry norman in Stockpair Daily Insight

stockpair-dailytips (2)

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events today:

Cur. Event
  NZD ANZ Business Confidence
  JPY BoJ Press Conference
  EUR German PPI (MoM) (Nov)
  EUR GfK German Consumer
  CAD Core CPI (YoY) (Nov)
  CAD Core CPI (MoM) (Nov)
  CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM)

Where Does The Dollar Go From Here?

December 19, 2014

Barry Norman

us dollar muscleThe US dollar is trading near a 2014 high at 89.47 after the Federal Reserve statement and Janet Yellen’s press conference. Many say the Fed became dovish while others say there were a lot of clues in Dr. Yellen’s words especially when she indicated that an interest rate increase could come as early as April 2015. Many nay sayers are claiming that there will be no increase in 2015. The balanced view by the Fed, which contained both dovish and hawkish elements – wolf in sheep’s clothing? – pleased investors

With the Fed set to hike a first time in the Summer of 2015, you might expect an underperformance of the front end of the yield curve. The current steepening might indicate that investors also believe in the positive impact from the oil price on growth. The past weeks, the US yield curve also flattened significantly, so a correction was coming anyway. The US eco calendar contained slightly better weekly jobless claims and a slightly disappointing Philly Fed indicator.

On Thursday, global currency markets built further on the post‐Fed reaction. Sentiment turned risk‐on and the dollar extends broad‐based gains with the trade‐weighted USD nearing the multi‐year highs.

The Fed offered a carefully worded message over the timing of its first interest rate rise, leaving financial markets scrambling to make sense of its meaning.

In the statement, released after its regular two-day meeting, the Federal Reserve seemed to move away from its long-standing pledge to keep rates at near zero for a “considerable time” and instead said it would adopt a “patient” approach in deciding when to raise the cost of borrowing. “Based on its current assessment, the Committee judges it can be patient in beginning to normalize the stance of monetary policy” it said. But the Fed muddied the water by adding this new view was “consistent” with its previous “considerable time” statements.

Posted on 17th December 2014 by barry norman in Stockpair Daily Insight

stockpair-dailytips (2)

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events today:

Cur. Event
  EUR German Ifo Business
  GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
  USD Philadelphia Fed

Crude Oil Rally – The Real Thing Or Just A Glitch

December 18, 2014

Barry Norman

crude oilTraders remained tuned to their radios and wait on the US Federal Reserve statement the US dollar rallied to trade at 88.70. Crude oil gained over $2.00 to trade at 58.31 after the weekly inventory showed a drop in stocks. U.S. crude stocks fell less than expected last week, while gasoline stocks increased and distillate inventories declined, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Wednesday. Crude inventories fell by 847,000 barrels in the last week, compared with analysts’ expectations for a 2.4- million-barrel draw.

While the crude oil inventory drop was less than consensus expectations, the EIA’s report contrasted sharply with the 1.9-million-barrel rise reported on Tuesday by industry group American Petroleum Institute.

The Energy Information Administration said in its weekly crude oil inventories report that domestic production rose to a new record, while imports slid. The contract settled unchanged at $56.26 yesterday after it plunged to a 5-1/2-year intra-day low of 53.94.

US crude production surged to 9.137 million barrels per day from 9.118 million a week earlier, hitting a new record for weekly data spanning back to January 1983.

Analysts attributed the rebound to traders who had bet on lower prices closing out positions. Oil prices have plunged nearly 50 per cent since June to the lowest level in more than five years.

crude oil stockpair

crude productionOil prices are expected to correct and return to their lower level by the end of the week. Saudi Arabia’s plan to continue spending on social projects and security increases the likelihood that the world’s biggest oil exporter will stick with OPEC’s policy of maintaining output even as crude prices plunge.

“Saudi Arabia is backing up OPEC policy with action to strengthen the home front against the adverse impact of falling oil prices,” Arabia Monitor Chief Economist Florence, whose firm advises investors on business risks in the Middle East, said today.

 

Posted on 16th December 2014 by barry norman in Stockpair Daily Insight

stockpair-dailytips (2)

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events today:

Cur. Event
  GBP Average Earnings Index
  GBP Claimant Count Change
  GBP MPC Meeting Minutes
  EUR CPI (YoY) (Nov)
  USD Core CPI (MoM) (Nov)
  USD FOMC Statement

FOMC Statement Day… Watch For A Change In Language

December 17, 2014

Barry Norman

141212062105-oil-janet-yellen-620xaWhat normally would be a meeting about the US economy and a simple look into inflation and the labor market for the Federal Reserve has now become a complicated mess. Gold jumped 2% on Tuesday after its biggest one-day drop this year, as the dollar slid and investors sought safe havens as oil plunged and an emergency rate hike by Russia failed to stabilize the ruble. The dollar index fell 0.7%, its biggest one-day drop since mid-October, as turmoil in global foreign exchange markets drove investors to the safety of the yen and the Swiss franc.

Risk aversion is lifting gold, with oil reaching new lows and geopolitical tensions ratcheting up with the slide in the ruble and aggressive action by the Russian central bank to counter this.

 

Shares in European companies exposed to Russia fell sharply to lead a broad decline on Tuesday, as concern grew about the state of the Russian economy. The ruble sank 20 percent versus the dollar despite Russia’s central bank ramping up interest rates overnight to 17% from 11.5%. Plunging oil prices also roiled markets, with benchmark Brent crude futures sliding 3.5% to below $59 a barrel for the first time since May 2009. Investors are now waiting to see if the Fed’s final meeting of 2014 which concludes on Wednesday and the market is expecting a more hawkish tone, with a statement and forecasts expected on Wednesday at 7.00pm GMT, followed by Fed chief Janet Yellen’s press conference. A Fed rate hike is expected to boost the dollar by attracting investment flows into the United States.

The euro was last up 0.6 percent against the dollar at 1.2512, not far from a more than three-week high of 1.2569. The dollar was last down 0.61 percent against the Swiss franc at 0.9596 franc, not far from an over three-week low of 0.9555. The dollar was last down 0.97 percent against the yen at 116.68 yen, holding near a session low of 115.58, which was the lowest since Nov. 17.

gold stockpair

Posted on 15th December 2014 by barry norman in Stockpair Daily Insight

stockpair-dailytips (2)

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events today:

Cur. Event Forecast
  AUD Monetary Meeting Minutes
  CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI 49.9
  EUR German Manufacturing PMI 50.4
  GBP BoE Gov. Carney Speaks
  GBP CPI (YoY) (Nov) 1.2%
  EUR German ZEW Economic 20.8
  USD Building Permits (Nov) 1.060M

 

Global Oil War Heats Up

December 16, 2014

Barry Norman

oil-300x246In what seems to be a war of words, Saudi Arabia has stated that they will not cut production even if oil prices touch $40. In an effort to force US shale producers from the market Saudi Arabia and OPEC have the tap open full steam as data shows that OPEC pumped more oil in November than their output quota, exceeding the quota for the 6th month straight as the world drowns in oil.

Crude oil prices on Monday climbed in the Asian session as traders bought up the cheap commodity only to reverse course later in the day and plunged $1.80 to reach 56.30 pulling Brent oil prices right alongside. Brent oil is at 61.13 and seems destined to fall below the psychological level of $60.

The winner of this battle is the US consumer, as winter rolls in, heating oil prices and gasoline prices continue to decline placing money directly in the hands of American consumers.  The International Energy Agency cut its outlook for global demand. On the New York Mercantile exchange, crude oil for January delivery has shaved more than $8, a stunning move over the past days.

MW-DB124_oil_de_20141209154955_ZH

A side benefit caused by low oil prices is that the flow of money for funding terrorist activities has dried up as the budgets of the small OPEC members shrink as does their cash reserves. Russia says GDP to fall 4.5% in 2015 if oil stays at $60 pushing Putin into a corner. As Russian oil and gas majors are “the largest corporate borrowers in, and contributors to, the Russian economy, concerns naturally arise about the outlook for cash flow, dividends and debt repayments in this new macro environment,” said analysts at Barclays in a note about Russian energy firms.

As the year draws to an end most consumers and governments are seeing this as a holiday present as costs drop and inflation remains low. After the New Year things might be viewed a bit differently.

MW-DB108_world__20141209143440_ZH

 

Posted on 13th December 2014 by barry norman in Stockpair weekly Insights

Global Exchanges

European shares tumbled on Friday and posted their biggest weekly loss since mid-2011 as a relentless slide in crude oil prices pounded the European energy sector. The STOXX Europe 600 index has lost 5.8 percent during the week, representing a wipeout in market capitalization of roughly $524 billion, more the size of Norway’s annual GDP. The Dow industrials and major European equity indexes posted their biggest weekly losses in three years, as shares in Europe fell more than 2 percent and stocks on Wall Street, with the exception of NASDAQ, fell nearly as much. Britain’s FTSE share index lost 2.5 percent to post its biggest weekly loss in more than three years.

“This is a bloodbath. After such a negative week, there’s not even a rebound into the close. The fact that oil can’t find a floor is spooking market players,” Saxo Bank trader Pierre Martin said.

Investors have been rattled by a decision by the Greek government to bring forward to next week a presidential vote that will force nearly two dozen independent lawmakers to decide whether to side with Prime Minister Antonis Samaras’ pro-bailout cabinet, or with leftist radicals who have pledged to tear up the bailout.

The U.S. Senate on Friday struggled to pass a $1.1 trillion spending bill that would avert a looming federal government shutdown, postponing a vote until Monday when procedural hurdles begin to evaporate.

Negotiations between Democrats and Republicans to speed the process along collapsed during late-night talks in the nearly abandoned U.S. Capitol.

Barring any agreement to act in a more streamlined way, the Senate is on track to hold a procedural vote at 1 a.m. eastern time (0600 GMT) Sunday aimed at clearing the way for passage on Monday.

U.S. consumer sentiment rose in December to a near eight-year high on improved prospects for jobs and wages and on lower gasoline prices, a survey released on Friday showed.

global stockpair stocks

Currency Markets

The dollar cut its losses against the euro and extended gains against the yen. It was up 0.38 percent against the euro at $1.2456 and erased early nearly all losses against the yen to trade down 0.02 percent at 118.63 yen.

chart_api stockpair

Commodity Markets

Oil fell to fresh lows not seen since mid-2009 on Friday with Brent crude slipping below $62 a barrel while U.S. crude fell below $58 on mounting worries over a global supply glut and weak demand.  Saipem dropped 5.6 percent on Friday, hitting a 10-year low, while Royal Dutch Shell lost 3 percent, and Repsol retreated by 6 percent. Crude has dropped nearly 50 percent since June, forcing a number of European oil services companies including Seadrill and Fugro to scrap dividends as oil majors have accelerated cost-cutting.

Posted on 13th December 2014 by barry norman in Stockpair Daily Insight

stockpair-dailytips (2)

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events today:

Cur. Event
  JPY Tankan Large
  GBP CBI Industrial Trends
  USD NY Empire State
  USD Industrial Production

 

US Budget Battle Lingers On

December 15, 2014

Barry Norman

us budget stockpairAs the week closed US President Obama signed a two-day extension to stop the US government from closing, and the Senate is expected to pick up the legislation and vote on it later Friday, though they have until midnight Saturday before the next deadline. Legislative leaders insisted another shutdown wouldn’t happen. And it didn’t. But the House was just two hours away, and the Senate might not cast its final votes until this weekend.

Congress narrowly averted a government shutdown that was slated to take effect at midnight. The House approved a $1.1 trillion spending bill that keeps the government open through September. The Senate agreed to a two-day extension of current funding levels to give itself time to approve the House bill.

After a crazy day, the House passed the spending bill in a 219-206 vote.

 

The bill would keep most of the government running through the end of September, but only funds the Department of Homeland Security through February, when Republicans have vowed to pass new restrictions on the agency responsible for carrying out Obama’s executive orders on immigration.

Below is a reprint from the New York Times dated September 30, 2013 (15 months ago)

Investors are worried that even a temporary government shutdown could endanger an already weak economic recovery.

Stock markets fell worldwide on Monday as political disagreements in Washington made a shutdown on Monday night increasingly likely. In the United States, investors were most concerned that a government shutdown this week could make it more likely that the United States will default on its outstanding debt when it reaches its borrowing limit in a little more than two weeks.

But on Monday, economists were scrambling to estimate the more immediate effect on the economy if all nonessential government services were closed on Tuesday.

Déjà vu:

sp 500 stockpair

Posted on 11th December 2014 by barry norman in Stockpair Daily Insight

stockpair-dailytips (2)

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events today:

Cur. Event
  NZD Business NZ PMI (Nov)
  JPY Industrial Production
  CNY Fixed Asset Investment
  CNY Industrial Production (YoY)
  EUR Industrial Production
  USD Core PPI (MoM) (Nov)
  USD PPI (MoM) (Nov)
  USD Michigan Consumer

 

Retail Sales Soar Rallying The US Dollar

December 12, 2014

Barry Norman

 Santa Claude gift wrapped the US dollar today, sending it up to the 89 level after US data releases assured traders that the US was in a full scale recovery. US retailers are ho ho ho…ing to the bank after retail sales for November soared well above expected signaling a Jolly Christmas Sales Season. U.S. consumer spending advanced at a brisk clip in November as lower gasoline prices gave the holiday shopping season a boost, offering the latest sign of underlying momentum in the economy.

us retail sales stockpair

The Commerce Department said on Thursday retail sales excluding automobiles, gasoline, building materials and food services, increased 0.6 per cent last month after rising 0.5 per cent in October. The so-called core retail sales correspond most closely with the consumer spending component of gross domestic product. November’s increase exceeded Wall Street’s expectations for a 0.4-per-cent gain.

It also suggested that consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, was accelerating in the fourth quarter after slowing in the July-September period.

The solid retail sales data added to November’s bullish employment report in painting a fairly upbeat picture of the economy, despite a recession in Japan and faltering growth in the euro zone, China and major emerging markets.

In a separate report, the Labor Department said new claims for state unemployment benefits fell last week, pushing them firmly beneath the key 300,000 level, in a sign of continued improvement in the jobs market.

us retal sales 2 stockpair

Many analysts believe that holiday spending could rise by at least 4 percent this year because of recent job growth. The hiring spree since February has bolstered the number of people with steady paychecks by nearly 2.65 million, and consumer confidence has also improved.

eurusd stockpair

 

 

 

Posted on 10th December 2014 by barry norman in Stockpair Daily Insight

stockpair-dailytips (2)Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events today:

Cur. Event
  NZD Interest Rate Decision  
  JPY Tertiary Industry Act.  
  GBP RICS House Price  
  AUD Employment Change  
  EUR German CPI (MoM)  
  EUR ECB Monthly Report  
  USD Core Retail Sales  
  USD Export Price Index  
  USD Import Price Index  
  USD Initial Jobless Claims  
  USD Retail Sales (MoM)  
  USD Business Inventories

 

Crude Oil Production & Stocks Continue To Increase

December 11, 2014

Barry Norman

Will crude oil break the $60 price level? As Saudi Arabia continues its war against US shale producers, it looks like US producers are not about to give in. The lower prices have caused some producers to ease their future plans but have not curtailed production.  The Saudi’s seem to have underestimated the Americans, as the oil industry just offsets lower prices with more production using the same argument as the OPEC primary producers. Brent and West Texas Intermediate crudes dropped to five-year lows as OPEC said it expects demand for its supplies next year to be the lowest since 2003. The correlation between gold and oil advanced to 0.38 last week, the strongest link since July 2013. A reading of 1 would mean the commodities were moving in lockstep.

crude oil chart stockpair

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries lowered its estimate for demand for its crude in 2015 by about 300,000 barrels a day to 28.9 million. Crude could fall as low as $40 a barrel amid a price war or if divisions emerge in OPEC, said an official at Iran’s oil ministry. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reduced its price forecasts for next year while also downgrading its production outlook for a second month.

Brent collapsed 15 percent since OPEC agreed to leave its production ceiling unchanged on Nov. 27, resisting calls from members including Venezuela to cut output to stabilize prices.

WTI crude stocks unexpectedly rose in the last week, as gasoline and distillate inventories surged, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Wednesday. Crude inventories rose by 1.5 million barrels in the last week, compared with analysts’ expectations for an 2.2-million-barrel draw. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub rose by 1.02 million barrels, EIA said.

crude oil prices stockpair