Posted on 22nd November 2014 by barry norman in Stockpair Daily Insight

stockpair-dailytips (2)

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events today:

Cur. Event
  EUR German Business Expect
  EUR German Current Assessment
  EUR German Ifo Business Climate
  USD Services PMI (Nov)

 

Central Banks Keep Hold Market Attention

November 24, 2014

Barry Norman

central-bank-of-china_1388666352China cut its benchmark interest rates for the first time since July 2012, stepping up efforts to support the world’s second-largest economy. The move put the People’s Bank of China on the side of the ECB and Bank of Japan in adding stimulus. Draghi said today the ECB needs to accelerate inflation and may broaden its asset-purchase program.

China lowered the one-year deposit rate by 0.25 percentage point to 2.75 percent and the one-year lending rate by 0.4 percentage points to 5.6 percent, effective tomorrow, the PBOC said. Earlier, it was said to have added money to the banking system as a cash shortage stemming from new share sales drove the benchmark money-market rate up by the most since July. The greenback jumped to its highest level in more than four years Friday, boosted by the euro’s declines, as the European Central Bank’s decision to begin buying asset-backed securities weakened investor confidence in the shared currency. The ECB’s purchases of asset-backed securities represent the second leg of the ECB’s quest to catalyze growth by expanding its balance sheet. In September, the central bank began buying covered corporate bonds, which are guaranteed against a company’s assets. The euro slumped versus its peers as ECB President Draghi told the European Banking Congress in Frankfurt that officials “will do what we must to raise inflation and inflation expectations as fast as possible.”

USDJPY(4 Hours)20141122082800

BOJ Governor Kuroda said responsibility for Japan’s fiscal health lies with the government. Consumer prices excluding fresh food slipped in October from a month earlier, according to the median estimate of 28 analysts surveyed before a report next week. Stripped of the effects of April’s sales-tax increase, the central bank’s core measure of inflation was 1 percent in September, a level Kuroda said in July wouldn’t be breached. The yen has fallen too quickly, according to Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso.

Posted on 22nd November 2014 by barry norman in Stockpair weekly Insights

Stockpair Weekly Market Wrap November 24-28, 2014

 

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events this week:

Time Cur. Imp. Event      
Monday, November 24, 2014
Japan Holiday
 EUR  German Ifo Business Climate
Tuesday, November 25, 2014
  EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)  
  USD GDP (QoQ) (Q3)  
  CAD Core Retail Sales (MoM)  
  USD CB Consumer Confidence  
Wednesday, November 26, 2014
  GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q3)  
  USD Core Durable Goods Orders  
  USD New Home Sales (Oct)  
 USD  Pending Home Sales (MoM)  
Thursday, November 27, 2014
United States – Thanksgiving Day
  EUR German Unemployment  
Friday, November 28, 2014
United States – The Day After
  EUR CPI (YoY) (Nov)  
  CAD GDP (MoM) (Sep)

 

Global Exchanges

Wall Street ended the week with benchmark indexes closing at all-time highs, and the dollar advanced with oil and metals after China cut interest rates. The euro weakened as Mario Draghi said the European Central Bank must drive inflation higher.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 0.5 percent to a record at 4 p.m. in New York. The MSCI All-Country World Index advanced 0.7 percent, while the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rallied 2.1 percent to a two-month high.

The positive momentum on US markets came after China announced a surprise rate cut and the European Central Bank started buying asset-backed securities to expand its program to stoke inflation and revive the bloc’s weak economy.

global markets stockpair

Currency Markets

Friday was supposed to be a calm session with no eco data on de calendar and technical trading expected on most markets, including on the currency market. ECB’s Draghi decided otherwise. The ECB president used unprecedented strong language to stress its commitment to bring inflation to the target as fast as possible. This time, the language was strong enough to send the euro south. EUR/USD dropped to the low 1.24 area.

The U.S. Dollar rose to its highest level in more than four years Friday, boosted by the euro’s declines, as the European Central Bank’s decision to begin buying asset-backed securities weakened investor confidence in the shared currency. The dollar ended the week up 0.82% to 88.3070. Elsewhere, the pound ended the week at a fresh 14-month low against the dollar, trading at $1.5654, compared with $1.5695 Thursday afternoon.

Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso commented on the yen’s depreciation for the first time Friday, saying that the currency had declined “too fast.” It moved higher after his comments. The dollar traded at ¥117.72 Friday, a level last seen Wednesday as the greenback rose rapidly against the yen. It traded at ¥118.07 late Thursday.

global currency stockpair

Commodity Markets

Crude oil and Brent oil increased after China, the world’s second-largest oil-consuming country, and cut interest rates to bolster its economy. WTI gained 0.9 percent and Brent 1.3 percent after the People’s Bank of China lowered lending and deposit rates for the first time since 2012. Half of the 20 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News predict the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will reduce output at a meeting next week, while the rest forecast no change.

After relatively quiet trading following last Friday’s wild ride, the gold market managed to consolidate gains today, ending above the psychologically important $1,200 an ounce level. In late afternoon trade on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange gold for December delivery was changing hands for $1,201.50 an ounce, up $10.60 or nearly 1% from Thursday’s close. The metal opened strong reaching $1,208 an ounce an hour into the session, but then two massive sell trades just before noon of some 1.3m ounces were executed five minutes apart.

Posted on 20th November 2014 by barry norman in Stockpair Daily Insight

stockpair-dailytips (2)

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events today:

Cur. Event
  EUR ECB President Draghi
  CAD Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)
  CAD Core CPI (MoM) (Oct)
  CAD CPI (MoM) (Oct)

 

US Data Continues To Excel

November 21, 2014

Barry Norman

us dollar muscleThe greenback weakened against the euro and the yen Thursday after investors took profits on its recent gains against the two currencies, despite the release of upbeat data for U.S. inflation and jobless claims.

Except for food, prices of most of the physical stuff Americans buy are either falling or rising very slowly, according to the latest report on the consumer price index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Excluding things we stuff in our mouths, the price of stuff is down 1.2% in the past year. In the past year, consumer prices for durable goods (such as cars, appliances, furniture, electronics and other long-lasting goods) have fallen 1.4%, according to the BLS. For example, televisions are down 14.1% in the past year, major appliances are down 6.6%, and jewelry is down 5%. The typical consumer spends about 9% of his or her yearly budget on durable goods. The number of people who applied for new unemployment benefits totaled fewer than 300,000 for the 10th straight week, reflecting the low level of layoffs in the U.S. as the economy continues to strengthen. Initial jobless claims fell by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 291,000 in the week ended Nov. 15.

 

Consumer prices stockpair

Also in the US the reading of manufacturing sentiment in November reached its best level in almost 21 years, suggesting that factory output may be able to withstand the stronger dollar, weak global growth and low oil prices. The Philadelphia Fed reported Thursday its manufacturing index rose to a much-stronger-than-expected reading of 40.8 from 20.7 in October, marking the best level since December 1993. It was much stronger than the 18.5 reading seen in a compiled economic forecast.

The leading economic index jumped 0.9% in October, the Conference Board said Thursday, after a gain of 0.7% in September and a flat reading in August. The upward trend in the LEI points to continued economic growth through the holiday season.

philly fed stockpair

 

 

 

 

Posted on 19th November 2014 by barry norman in Stockpair Daily Insight

stockpair-dailytips (2)

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events today:

Cur. Event
  CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI
  EUR German Manufacturing PMI
  GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
  USD Core CPI (MoM) (Oct)
  USD Existing Home Sales (Oct)
  USD Philadelphia Fed Index (Nov)

Oil Markets Fixated On OPEC Meeting Next Week

November 20, 2014

Barry Norman

oil_1697040bNews from the Energy Information Administration showed U.S. crude stocks rose last week even as refineries hiked output, while gasoline stocks increased and distillate inventories fell. The builds in crude oil and gasoline stocks are negatives for prices and the focus is really now going to be on the OPEC meeting and whether or not they cut production.

Gasoline inventories increased by 1.8 million barrels to 203.6 million barrels, analysts were expecting inventories to climb by 360,000 barrels. The surprise build even as refineries just came out of maintenance points towards weak demand and exports. This is bearish for gasoline and crude prices. Indeed, the build would be another reason why crude prices fell despite the EIA reporting a bullish draw in crude oil inventories.

Crude showed a modest gain on Wednesday, as many investors remain focused on the OPEC meeting and the Iran nuclear negotiations next week.

Prices were last up 49 cents, or 0.7%, to $75.10 a barrel while Brent crude was up 79 cents, or 1%, at $79.26 a barrel.

FireShot Pro Screen Capture #4316 - 'Oil steps higher, tries to reclaim $75-a-barrel mark - MarketWatch' - www_marketwatch_com_column_futures-movers

The U.S. oil markets briefly showed modest losses and traded near the day’s lows, after a U.S. Energy Information Administration report showed a surprise increase in supplies, but crude subsequently bounced back.

Morgan Stanley said oil markets are so focused on the November 27 decision of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries that they have largely shaken off a number of positive developments on several fronts, including fundamental, financial and OPEC-related news.

oil stockpair

 

Posted on 18th November 2014 by barry norman in Stockpair Daily Insight

stockpair-dailytips (2)

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events today:

Cur. Event
  JPY BoJ Press Conference
  GBP MPC Meeting Minutes
  USD Building Permits (MoM) (Oct)
  USD Building Permits (Oct)
  USD Housing Starts (MoM) (Oct)
  USD Housing Starts (Oct)
  USD FOMC Meeting Minutes

Prime Minister Abe Does Not Disappoint

November 19, 2014

Barry Norman

19abe03-master675Japan’s prime minister Shinzo Abe, has gambled his political future by calling a snap election as he seeks to push back a scheduled tax increase, arguing that recovery is “the only path” available to the world’s third-largest economy.  The JPY continues to weaken trading at 116.64 against a weak US dollar. US data reported better than expected as PPI printed above expectations which should help the FOMC look forward to an interest rate increase. Tomorrow traders will get to see the inner workings of the Federal Reserve as minutes are released late in the session.

A sharp slowdown in Asia and stagnation in Europe are putting the global economy at risk of a prolonged slump, economists say, marked in places by sky-high ­unemployment, sluggish wage growth and some of the worst economic conditions in decades.

On Monday, Japan said it had entered its fourth recession in six years — this one despite aggressive efforts by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to boost growth. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister David Cameron warned that the world’s economy could be headed toward another disaster.

Abe said Tuesday he will postpone a controversial sales tax rise scheduled for next October and call a parliamentary election two years earlier than planned. The announcement was made at an executive meeting of Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party and comes as Japan’s economy recently slipped back into recession. Japanese broadcaster NHK said Abe told reporters he will dissolve parliament on Friday.

The early election, to seek a public mandate for his decision to delay the unpopular sales tax until 2017, will be held in mid-December. Japanese law stipulates the sales tax needed to be raised from the current 8% to 10% by next October if economic conditions permit, NHK said. Japan emerged from its last recession in late 2012, just as Abe took office pledging to restore the country’s economic vigor.

The rise in Japan’s sales tax was brought in by the previous government in 2012 to curb Japan’s huge public debt, which is the highest among developed nations. The first rise – from 5% to 8% – took place in April. Mr Abe’s government had hoped the increase would boost government income but instead Japanese consumers stopped spending. Figures released on Monday showed that the world’s third biggest economy had fallen back into a technical recession. The second increase, to 10%, was set for October 2015 but will now be delayed by at least 18 months.

This month Mr Abe’s popularity slipped below 50% for the first time since his election in 2012. By Japanese standards 50% is still quite high. But in another year from now Mr Abe may face a much tougher battle to get re-elected.

usdjpy stockpairs 2

 

 

 

Posted on 17th November 2014 by barry norman in Stockpair Daily Insight

stockpair-dailytips (2)

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events today:

Cur. Event
  AUD Policy Meeting Minutes
  AUD RBA Governor Stevens
  GBP CPI (MoM) (Oct)
  GBP CPI (YoY) (Oct)
  GBP PPI Input (MoM) (Oct)
  EUR German ZEW Current
  EUR German ZEW Economic
  EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment
  USD Core PPI (MoM) (Oct)
  USD PPI (MoM) (Oct)

 

 

Japan Falls Into Recession While The Eurozone Prepares To Contract

November 19, 2014

Barry Norman

japan The Japanese Q3 GDP came out extremely weak as the economy contracted by 1.6% in Q3 annualized, after a contraction of 7.3% in the second quarter, due to a sales tax hike. Last week, the Nikkei rallied and the yen declined as markets speculated that PM Abe would delay a second sales tax hike and call snap elections in December. This scenario has become even more probable after today’s poor GDP. However, markets don’t take it from the positive side anymore. Japanese equities decline around 3% at the moment of writing. USD/JPY filled offers in the 117 area this morning, but is also captured by the risk-off sentiment. USD/JPY is changing hand in the 115.60 area. The USD/JPY decline also put the dollar further under pressure against the euro.

Japanese yen

 

 

European Central Bank President Mario Draghi attends the monthly news conference in FrankfurtECB Draghi echoed the message of the dovish press conference earlier this month in today’s quarterly testimony for European parliament. Policy makers are unanimous on further action if needed. Earlier on Monday, ECB Praet was dovish and warned that the economic outlook for the eurozone will likely be lowered in December. Draghi indicated at the November press conference that more easing can be expected if the current programmes fall short of reaching the target or if the medium term inflation outlook worsens. The euro fell 71 points to trade at 1.2456 while the yen eased against the greenback to end the day at 116.48 near a record low.

The ECB president was also soft in his hearing before the EU Parliament, but his comments were more or less in line with the early November ECB press conference. The ECB comments pushed EUR/USD further south.

 

eurusd stockpair

 

Posted on 15th November 2014 by barry norman in Stockpair Daily Insight

stockpair-dailytips (2)

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events today:

Cur. Event
  NZD Retail Sales (QoQ) (Q3)
  JPY GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  JPY GDP (YoY) (Q3)
  USD NY Empire State Mfg.
  CAD Foreign Securities Purchases
  USD Industrial Production (Oct)

Japan Takes Center Stage Today

November 17, 2014

Barry Norman

A man walks past the Bank of Japan building in TokyoThe Japanese yen reached a new high of ¥116.20 on Friday. Traders are closely monitoring several events and news headlines. Last week rumors surfaced that Prime Minister Abe would delay the 2nd step in the sales tax increase due in the spring and also call for immediate elections to shore up his position as his party and many economists see Abenomics as a failure.  The latest reports in the Nikkei newspaper suggest Abe is moving towards a delay of the sales tax hike by around 18 months. Japan’s Finance Minister Amari spoke this morning and admitted there are risks associated with either going ahead with the hike or delaying it. Heading into Monday’s GDP release, which has been pinned as the key release for the sales tax hike decision, positioning is likely to ramp up. Once the G20 wraps up, then Abe will probably be in a better position to comment on the latest speculation.

Monday morning Japan reports preliminary third-quarter gross domestic product, an indicator Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will consider when deciding whether to proceed with a planned sales-tax increase. Economists estimate growth of 2.8 percent for the three months ended Sept. 30 after contraction at an annualized 7.1 percent in the previous quarter.

 

Japanese data stockpair

Later in the week Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe may dissolve the lower house of parliament to hold a snap election next month after postponing a planned sales-tax increase. Abe is seeking to win a broader mandate for his economic policies and to push through unpopular security legislation.  The Bank of Japan announces monetary policy at the end of a two-day meeting, after expanding easing last month. The meeting usually ends about midday, followed by a press conference by Governor Haruhiko Kuroda.

Posted on 15th November 2014 by barry norman in Stockpair weekly Insights

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events this week:

Cur. Event
Tuesday, November 18, 2014
  GBP CPI (YoY) (Oct)  
  EUR German ZEW Economic Sent.  
  USD PPI (MoM) (Oct)  
Wednesday, November 19, 2014
  USD Building Permits (Oct)  
Thursday, November 20, 2014
  CNY HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Nov)  
  EUR German Manufacturing PMI  
  GBP Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)  
  USD Core CPI (MoM) (Oct)  
  USD Existing Home Sales (Oct)  
  USD Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing  
Friday, November 21, 2014
  CAD Core CPI (MoM) (Oct)  

Global Exchanges

Wall Street closed Friday’s uneven trading session fractionally higher, but still managed to post a fourth-straight weekly gain. The main benchmarks switched between small gains and losses throughout the trading session, as investor reaction to upbeat economic data, namely retail sales and consumer confidence, was mostly muted.

Both retail sales and consumer sentiment data showed Americans were benefiting from lower gas prices and are prepared to increase their spending during the crucial, holiday-shopping season. That promises to be a boon for the economy as retail sales account for one-third of consumer spending, the main engine of U.S. economic activity.

The S&P 500 closed at a record high after ending a fraction of a point higher at 2,039.82. The benchmark index gained 0.4% over the week. The Dow slipped 18 points, or 0.1%, to close at 17,634.74, but still gained 0.4% over the past five sessions. The NASDAQ ended 8.4 points, or 0.2%, higher at 4,688.54 gaining 1.2% over the week.

In Asia, equities ended mixed, while Europe closed mostly flat after eurozone GDP numbers beat forecasts. European stocks slipped Friday as investors assessed a round of economic growth data from the eurozone, but the benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 managed to eke out a minor gain for the week.

FireShot Pro Screen Capture #4302 - 'U_S_ dollar sinks vs_ euro on falling inflation expectations - MarketWatch' - www_marketwatch_com_story_dollar-back-at-seven-year-high-vs-the-yen-after-retail-sales-2014-11-14

Currency Markets

The dollar moved higher against the yen on a round of dollar buying ahead of U.S. retail sales data expected to be released Friday morning. Investors bet that the dollar will move back above ¥116 on a strong reading. The dollar rose to a seven-year high above that level on Nov. 11. The dollar traded at 115.80 yen, compared to ¥115.47 late Wednesday. The euro was higher against the dollar Thursday afternoon, trading at $1.2475, compared to $1.2437 Wednesday and closed the week at 1.254. Gross domestic product in the 18-member eurozone grew 0.6% last quarter on an annualized basis, the European Union’s statistics office said Friday. GDP grew 0.2% on a quarterly basis. The figures were slightly better than expected.

global currency stockpair

Commodity Markets

Crude oil rallied Friday amid speculation that OPEC may cut its oil production, a move that would help stabilize plunging prices. However, Friday’s rally didn’t prevent oil from ringing up its seventh consecutive weekly loss. Gold prices rebounded and rose $27 to $1,188.9.

Posted on 13th November 2014 by barry norman in Stockpair Daily Insight

stockpair-dailytips (2)

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events today:

Cur. Event
  EUR French GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  EUR German GDP (QoQ)
  EUR French Payrolls
  EUR CPI (MoM) (Oct)
  EUR GDP (QoQ) (Q3)
  USD Export Price Index
  USD Import Price Index
  USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Oct)
  CAD Manufacturing Sales
  USD Michigan Con Sentiment

ECB Monthly Report Has Little Effect On The Euro

November 14, 2014

Barry Norman

Deutsche-Bundesbank-890x395The euro is trading at 1.2478 remaining in its recent trading range.  Thursday’s ECB report did little to change the overall movement of the euro. The euro gained on a bit of disappointing data from the US. The ECB’s “extensive quantitative easing measures” posed “risks for long-term economic growth in the euro area, not least by dampening the member states’ willingness to implement reforms and consolidate their public finances”, the German Council of Economic Experts said in its annual report, published this week. The report added that the ECB “should avoid massively expanding its balance sheet as long as it does not forecast deflation in the euro area.” The report is the latest German warning shot to be aimed in the direction of Mario Draghi’s ECB, which has started to pump more money into the economy in a bid to stimulate greater financial activity.

The ECB reported in its Monthly Bulletin, that it expects inflation “to remain at around current low levels over the coming months”, blaming plunging oil prices. The Bank predicted the inflation rate to increase gradually during 2015 and 2016.

Lending to the private sector continues to be slow in spite of credit easing achieved through the ECB’s TLTROs though the central bank said there had been a “turnaround in loan dynamics” to the non-financial sector in the second quarter of 2014.

The ECB warned of stagnant growth in the Eurozone but noted that the common currency had fallen significantly against other major currencies over the past twelve months, for example plunging by 7.5% against the US dollar and 6.7% against sterling.

eurusd stockpair

Posted on 13th November 2014 by barry norman in Stockpair Daily Insight

stockpair-dailytips (2)

Stockpair traders should keep an eye on these events today:

Cur. Event
  GBP RICS House Price
  AUD RBA Assist Gov. Kent
  JPY Industrial Production
  CNY Fixed Asset Invest
  CNY Industrial Production
  EUR German CPI (MoM)
  EUR French CPI (MoM)
  EUR Spanish CPI (MoM)
  EUR ECB Monthly Report
  USD Initial Jobless Claims
  CAD New Housing Price
  USD JOLTs Job Openings
  USD Fed. Budget Balance

 

Bank of England Turns Sterling Upside Down and Inside Out

November 13, 2014

Barry Norman

 

bank of englandThe pound took a big fall on Wednesday dipping by more than 100 points to trade at 1.5818 after the Mark Carney’s comments and the Bank of England inflation report disappointed traders.  Sterling fell against its crosses after the Bank of England revised inflation projections downward, pushing expectations of an interest-rate increase by the central bank further into the future.  Just months ago, the Bank of England was pegged to be the first major bank to increase interest rates, but that is now long passed.

The bank has warned that inflation could fall below 1% in the next six months, due to lower food, energy and import prices, as well as feeble growth in Europe and elsewhere. Governor Mark Carney said he did not expect inflation to reach the targeted rate of 2% for three years.

The Bank also cut its prediction for UK economic growth in 2015 to 2.9%. However, the Bank said it expected average salaries to be growing by 2% by the end of 2015.

Growth in average pay for UK workers overtook inflation for the first time in five years, according to data from the Office for National Statistics. Wages excluding bonuses rose by 1.3% in the year to September, beating the 1.2% Consumer Prices Index inflation rate.

Including bonuses, earnings rose by 1% from a year earlier, the ONS said. The ONS also said that UK unemployment in the July-to-September period was down 115,000 on the previous quarter, cutting the total to 1.96 million.

jobless UK

The governor of the Bank of England has rubbished suggestions that he is set to keep interest rates on hold until next autumn in order to help George Osborne win the next election. Mark Carney said Bank rate-setters would be “absolutely blind” to political debate about the timing of the first interest rate rise, adding: “The only way to be apolitical is to ignore it, which is what we will do”.

the gbp stockpair